Kangwon Land GGR likely to rebound completely in 2022
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Kangwon Land, the only casino operator in South Korea to allow betting on locals, is "already entering positive cash flow territory" despite its gaming facilities "closed and reopened several times this year," according to a note from JPMorgan Securities (Asia-Pacific) Ltd.
DS Kim, Derek Choi and Jeremy An, analysts at the agency, said in a note on Wednesday: "More meaningful reopenings have begun since Oct. 16, when large tables were opened, and despite many restrictions (concurrent player restrictions, no standing bets) and reduced seating capacity (about 50%), early trends are very encouraging so far."
On Wednesday, the casino operator posted revenue of 76.62 billion won in the three months to Sept. 30, down 81.1% from a year earlier but up 121.2% sequentially.
The company's resort, Kangwon Land, is about 150 kilometers (93 miles) from the capital city of Seoul.
Kangwon Land could reach a full recovery in 2022 after its Game Gross Revenue (GGR) rose to half the level of 2019 in the fourth quarter of this year, JPMorgan suggests.
"Both slots and mass tables have recovered in the last 24 days to around 50% of last year's levels, and VIP GGR (because VIPs are less affected by capacity cuts and distancing rules anyway) has actually recovered to around 90% of last year's levels," JPMorgan wrote.
"This reinforces the belief that revenue from this exclusive casino is a function of capacity/supply (as opposed to final demand) regardless of distancing rules and restrictions, and that pent-up demand is very substantial for casinos (as seen in other reopened jurisdictions such as the United States, Singapore, Australia and Cambodia, with the exception of Macao SAR)," the analysts added.
They estimate Kangwon Land's GGR will rise to 50% of its quarterly pre-COVID-19 level in the fourth quarter and gradually rise to 90% in the last quarter of 2021 before hitting "100%" in 2022. Their forecasts presume further easing of rules on seating capacity and caps on the number of players.
The JPMorgan team said, "…Our analysis suggests Kangwon Land could reach earnings before the break-even point of interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) even with about 50% of its pre-COVID-19 GGR in 2019, which in fact is at a level Kangwon Land has already been witnessing in recent weeks," it wrote, noting that this would mean the company is entering a "positive cash flow area."
The JPMorgan team stressed that Kangwon Land's operating expenses in the third quarter, based on cash, fell about 10 percent from the previous quarter. In fiscal 2020, the South Korean company estimated it would post a net loss of 250 billion won ($224.8 million).
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